UNIVERSITY PARK

Oct 012012
 
Restricting MLS supply will not support a durable housing recovery

A durable recovery begins with increasing demand. More and more people have both stronger desire and more money to spend on housing when a sustained market rally takes hold. Both sales prices and sales volumes rise when demand increases. If you don’t have both, the rally is suspect. Right now, overall demand is slightly higher, but this is almost entirely due to an increase in investor activity. Despite record low interest rates, demand from owner-occupants is moribund. The truth is the recent increase in prices is almost entirely due to restricted supply, and durable recoveries are not built on weak demand and restricted supply. Shrinking inventory misleads future sellers… for now By Carrie B. Reyes • Aug 13th, 2012 California’s [Read More...]

Sep 272012
 
FHA will prompt millions of strategic defaults by waiving 3-year waiting period

Demand for houses by owner occupants has been anemic for nearly three years after four years of steep and unprecedented declines. Despite the refrain of increased demand from the bottom-calling glee club, the data clearly shows any increase in sales volume and demand this year is entirely due to cash investors, largely hedge funds buying low-end properties in beaten down markets. The decline in purchase applications is caused by two factors: potential buyers do not have the down payment, and potential borrowers cannot qualify for the loan. During the housing bubble, debt was cheap and plentiful, so many Americans stopped saving in favor of taking on copious amounts of debt. The Great Recession depleted the savings of the few Americans [Read More...]

Aug 202012
 
Future resale supply depends on when the banks process their foreclosures

Economists and housing market observers pour over sales numbers each month to divine the direction of future house prices. Everyone has their pet theories on whether house prices have bottomed or if there is more pain ahead. Many rely on these numbers as gospel forgetting that these numbers are generated by the actions of people responding to the conditions around them. Change the conditions, and the numbers can change quickly. CA – Foreclosure Outcomes For example, in February of 2012, lenders across the Southwest abruptly stopped processing their backlog of foreclosures, not because they exhausted the supply of delinquencies but because of internal policy changes brought about by the foreclosure settlement with state attorneys general around the country. The story [Read More...]

Aug 062012
 
Do you realize how much you pay for shadow inventory?

Shadow inventory is composed of delinquent mortgage holders who still occupy the houses they are not paying for. Many in shadow inventory have been living payment free for years, and many will continue living for free for several more. So why did banks do this? Ordinarily, banks would foreclose quickly to get their capital back to loan it profitably to someone else. What was their benefit in allowing so many to squat for so long? In mid 2008, house prices were crashing hard, particularly in subprime dominated markets which were the first to implode when their toxic mortgages required higher payments. Lenders quickly realized prices were crashing because they were flooding the MLS with inventory, and the available buyer pool [Read More...]

Jul 302012
 
Existing home sales take an unexpected dive

a significant decline in sales volume is because lenders have withdrawn the only affordable properties from the market. Potential homebuyers cannot simply raise their bids because the product gets scarce, so it isn’t a foregone conclusion that prices must go up. Most people stretch to get the most house they can for the money, and if prices go up, they must either substitute to a lesser quality home or chose not to buy. Right now, many are wisely choosing not to buy, so sales volumes are plummeting. Plus, I don’t see any end in sight. Nothing is changing that will bring more supply to the market. Little or no inventory and super low sales volume is the new normal. Prime [Read More...]

Jul 182012
 
University Park prices rebounding, still below $300/SF

Irvine: University Park Overview Median home price is $483,000. Based on a rental parity value of $575,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over the last 4 month(s). Momentum suggests worsening affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased from $297/SF to $299/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates increased $16 last month from $2,333 to $2,350. Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months. Market rating = 6 Proprietary Irvine Housing News home purchase analysis 14 BUTTERNUT Ln Irvine, CA 92612 $970,000 …….. Asking Price $1,085,000 ………. Purchase Price 8/23/2006 [Read More...]

Jun 212012
 
University Park prices still falling sharply

Irvine: University Park Overview Median home price is $467,000. Based on a rental parity value of $562,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over the last 3 month(s). Momentum suggests worsening affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $300/SF to $297/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates increased $33 last month from $2,300 to $2,333. Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months. Market rating = 7 Proprietary Irvine Housing News home purchase analysis 4822 ROYCE Rd Irvine, CA 92612 $699,000 …….. Asking Price $735,000 ………. Purchase Price 3/2/2005 [Read More...]

Jun 052012
 
University Park prices steadily dropping

Irvine: University Park Overview Median home price is $485,000. Based on a rental parity value of $532,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over the last 3 month(s). Momentum suggests worsening affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $299/SF to $293/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates increased $50 last month from $2,183 to $2,233. Rents have been rising for 11 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months. Market rating = 6 Proprietary Irvine Housing News home purchase analysis 4042 GERMAINDER Way Irvine, CA 92612 $499,900 …….. Asking Price $345,100 ………. Purchase Price 12/16/2011 [Read More...]

May 222012
 
University Park prices continue to drop

Irvine: University Park Overview Median home price is $485,000. Based on a rental parity value of $532,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over the last 3 month(s). Momentum suggests worsening affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $299/SF to $293/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates increased $50 last month from $2,183 to $2,233. Rents have been rising for 11 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months. Market rating = 6 Proprietary Irvine Housing News home purchase analysis 14 LAGO SUD #7 Irvine, CA 92612  $453,900 …….. Asking Price $650,000 ………. Purchase Price [Read More...]

May 172012
 
University park rents rising rapidly, prices firming

Irvine: University Park Overview Median home price is $485,000. Based on a rental parity value of $532,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over the last 3 month(s). Momentum suggests worsening affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $299/SF to $293/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates increased $50 last month from $2,183 to $2,233. Rents have been rising for 11 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months. Market rating = 6 Proprietary Irvine Housing News home purchase analysis 28 WINTERSWEET Way Irvine, CA 92612 $614,900 …….. Asking Price $435,000 ………. Purchase Price 11/12/2002 [Read More...]