Irvine: Oak Creek Overview
Median home price is $466,000. Based on a rental parity value of $536,000, this market is under valued.
Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 1 month(s). Momentum suggests unchanging affordability.
Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $314/SF to $310/SF.
Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months.
Median rental rates declined $9 last month from $2,233 to $2,224.
Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months.
Market rating = 5
Proprietary Irvine Housing News home purchase analysis 
$998,000 …….. Asking Price
$466,000 ………. Purchase Price
6/11/1999 ………. Purchase Date
$532,000 ………. Gross Gain (Loss)
($37,280) ………… Commissions and Costs at 8%
============================================
$494,720 ………. Net Gain (Loss)
============================================
114.2% ………. Gross Percent Change
106.2% ………. Net Percent Change
5.8% ………… Annual Appreciation
Cost of Home Ownership
——————————————————————————
$998,000 …….. Asking Price
$199,600 ………… 20% Down Conventional
3.68% …………. Mortgage Interest Rate
30 ……………… Number of Years
$798,400 …….. Mortgage
$200,025 ………. Income Requirement
$3,666 ………… Monthly Mortgage Payment
$865 ………… Property Tax at 1.04%
$250 ………… Mello Roos & Special Taxes
$250 ………… Homeowners Insurance at 0.3%
$0 ………… Private Mortgage Insurance
$137 ………… Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$5,167 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
($828) ………. Tax Savings
($1,217) ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$242 ………….. Lost Income to Down Payment
$145 ………….. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$3,508 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$11,480 ………… Furnishing and Move In at 1% + $1,500
$11,480 ………… Closing Costs at 1% + $1,500
$7,984 ………… Interest Points
$199,600 ………… Down Payment
============================================
$230,544 ………. Total Cash Costs
$53,700 ………. Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$284,244 ………. Total Savings Needed
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$849,900 5 BIRCHWOOD |
0.07 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,907 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,048,000 7 HENNA |
0.21 miles 5 bd / 3 ba 3,200 Sq. Ft. |
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$998,000 6 MEDLAR |
0.24 miles 4 bd / 2.75 ba 3,150 Sq. Ft. |
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$889,000 8 RAINSTAR |
1.46 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,500 Sq. Ft. |
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$769,000 4882 RAIN TREE Ln |
1.52 miles 5 bd / 2.75 ba 2,511 Sq. Ft. |
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$979,999 15306 NORMANDIE Ave |
1.55 miles 5 bd / 5 ba 3,700 Sq. Ft. |
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$779,900 18 SUNSET Riv |
1.6 miles 4 bd / 3.5 ba 2,580 Sq. Ft. |
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The “experts” agree, so it must be so, right?
Survey: Experts Agree Market to Hit Bottom in 2013
Experts surveyed by Zillow expect home prices to decline slightly in 2012, and predict they will bottom in 2013, according to the June 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey.
The survey included 114 respondents with backgrounds ranging from economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.
The respondents’ June prediction for home prices is that they will fall 0.4 percent in 2012, and then rise by 1.3 percent in 2013. In 2014, they expect home prices to rise by 2.5 percent, then rise by 3 percent in 2015, and then go up by 3.3 percent in 2016.
The survey, which was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC, is based on the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index during the coming five years.
The average cumulative prediction to 2014 was 3.5 percent. Although prices are expected to move on a positive track, two years ago in June 2010, the average prediction among respondents for cumulative appreciation into 2014 was 10.3 percent.
The most optimistic quartile of experts predicted, on average, a 1 percent increase in 2012, and the most pessimistic quartile of respondents expected to see an average decline of 2 percent.
“It’s good to start to see some convergence of expectations among economists, as it lends further support to the claim that a bottom is real,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.
Not all the gathered data was positive for the housing industry.
Most respondents, 56 percent, believe the homeownership rate will, in five years, drop below 65.4 percent, the rate recorded in the first quarter of 2012.
One in five also think the homeownership rate will be at or below 63 percent; the lowest rate on record was established in 1965 and is 62.9 percent.
“However, the fact that more than half of respondents believe that the homeownership rate will fall lower should be a sobering reminder that significant challenges remain ahead for the housing market, from negative equity to millions of foreclosed homeowners who now have impaired credit, making a return to homeownership harder than it would be otherwise,” said Humphries.