February is historically a bad month for real estate prices. The deals that close in February were negotiated in December and January, which are usually the weakest months of the year for real estate. And since this last fall and winter were particularly bad, the drop in February is not surprising.
Bottom for 2012?
Shevy tells me the low interest rates and relatively affordable prices are motivating many buyers. Shevy and his team have been very busy since the first of the year. With the declining inventory we witnessed in January — an extraordinarily unusual occurrence — conditions are ripe for a spring rally. If lenders release more product — which they should — I expect to see sales volumes up considerably this year from the recent moribund rate. Since prices are only now reaching the affordability of rental parity, I don’t anticipate a rally in prices, but we will get a bump off recent lows. Who knows, perhaps Calculated Risk is right and the housing market may bottom?
Look at the nosedive in that last data point. The last time the median was $431,000 was mid 2003.
Median home price measurements are often quite volatile (take a look at Turtle Rock or Turtle Ridge above). Median home prices says something about how much people are spending on properties in the market, but it doesn’t reveal the value they get for their money. For that reason I prefer to look at the $/SF measure.
Buyers in Irvine have been getting more house for the money for quite some time. As the high end continues to crumble the quality of what buyers obtain will continue to improve. With low interest rates, the high wage earners who tend to buy in Irvine will buy many $600,000 to $750,000 homes. These are still within reach using GSE-approved or FHA financing with less than 20% down. The jumbo market, which still requires a minimum 20% down, is effectively dead. The collapse of pricing at the bottom of the market means few buyers have the equity for a move-up, and despite contentions to the contrary, few people have saved $200,000 or more from their wages to buy a $1,000,000 house. For those who do have 20% to put down, prices in Irvine have not been this payment-affordable since the 1990s.
The situation is improving for FHA buyers as well, although upcoming increases in FHA insurance premiums are going to make affordability even more problematic for FHA borrowers.
I am not surprised the condos near the airport or in Orangetree would fall below rental parity. I am surprised Woodbury has become so affordable.
The pressures on rents is abating somewhat, but rents are still rising. The Irvine Company is about to complete several thousand more apartments, so perhaps this will keep rent increases to a minimum. But right now, MLS rents (which is what I measure) are going up.
The Orange County median has not taken out the 2009 lows yet, but it is very close to it.
The last year has been a steady decline.
Rents are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed.
The full report will be posted on the blog in a couple of weeks. If you want to see it sooner, please sign up for our monthly newsletter and be among the first to know what’s really going on in Orange County real estate
Wouldn't you be embarrassed to overpay by $100,000? Only fools buy houses without knowing neighborhood values. Don't be a fool. Don't suffer the pain of an underwater mortgage. The surest way to lose your house is to overpay for it. Our reports identify overvalued and undervalued neighborhoods. Use it to broaden or narrow your search area. Savvy buyers work with us to find bargains. We've saved thousands from financial ruin. Let us save you too. If you want peace of mind while shopping for your next home, sign up for our monthly market newsletter.
Upcoming Supply
I plan on a more detailed analysis in an upcoming post, but there is still a great deal of distressed inventory due to hit the market. Ponder these numbers:
In Irvine today, there are 583 active listings. If you check Foreclosure Radar, there are 609 properties with either a Notice of Default or a Notice of Trustee Sale, and almost none of these properties are currently listed. Shadow inventory statistics suggest that for each of the 609 properties with a notice, there are three or four delinquent mortgage squatters who haven’t been served yet. The upcoming supply of distressed inventory is enormous.
For more Irvine news, market analysis and property profiles, please see the Irvine Housing News.
The Irvine Housing News profiles properties for sale each day and presents current market data on each village and neighborhood. If you really want to know what’s happening in the Irvine Housing market, you need to read the Irvine Housing news and subscribe to the our monthly newsletter.
Wouldn't you be embarrassed to overpay by $100,000? Only fools buy houses without knowing neighborhood values. Don't be a fool. Don't suffer the pain of an underwater mortgage. The surest way to lose your house is to overpay for it. Our reports identify overvalued and undervalued neighborhoods. Use it to broaden or narrow your search area. Savvy buyers work with us to find bargains. We've saved thousands from financial ruin. Let us save you too. If you want peace of mind while shopping for your next home, sign up for our monthly market newsletter.
Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Irvine. Check them out. See what everyone else finds so interesting.
16 MONROVIA Irvine, CA 92602 — $978,000
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # S690076 from our database. Please check back soon.
Competing Listings
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$898,800 6 UPLAND |
0.08 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,810 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,090,000 19 RIVERSIDE |
0.16 miles 5 bd / 3.75 ba 3,000 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,298,000 14 RIVERSIDE |
0.19 miles 5 bd / 4 ba 3,250 Sq. Ft. |
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$889,900 21 VACAVILLE |
0.22 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,600 Sq. Ft. |
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$895,000 14 OROVILLE Sts |
0.25 miles 4 bd / 2.25 ba 2,500 Sq. Ft. |
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$848,800 7 OROVILLE |
0.3 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,404 Sq. Ft. |
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$789,800 106 SPRING Vly |
0.34 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,300 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,015,000 21 BLUE SPRUCE |
0.43 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,630 Sq. Ft. |
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$828,800 29 DINUBA |
0.51 miles 3 bd / 3 ba 2,265 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,020,000 11 CANYONWOOD |
0.52 miles 4 bd / 4 ba 2,589 Sq. Ft. |
For more news, market analysis and property profiles, please see the OC Housing News.
702 ROCKEFELLER Irvine, CA 92612 — $698,000
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # S690305 from our database. Please check back soon.
Competing Listings
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$470,000 21-214 GRAMERCY |
0.12 miles 2 bd / 2 ba 1,574 Sq. Ft. |
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$546,000 21-318 GRAMERCY |
0.12 miles 2 bd / 2.5 ba 1,681 Sq. Ft. |
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$669,000 21-417 GRAMERCY |
0.12 miles 2 bd / 2.5 ba 1,770 Sq. Ft. |
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$396,000 3141 MICHELSON Dr #1002 |
0.36 miles 2 bd / 2 ba 1,500 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,200,000 3131 MICHELSON #1804 |
0.39 miles 2 bd / 2 ba 2,088 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,299,000 3107 SCHOLARSHIP |
0.66 miles 3 bd / 4 ba 2,390 Sq. Ft. |
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$699,900 3084 SCHOLARSHIP |
0.67 miles 2 bd / 2.5 ba 1,715 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,300,000 3102 SCHOLARSHIP |
0.67 miles 3 bd / 3.5 ba 2,390 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,898,000 5154 SCHOLARSHIP |
0.75 miles 2 bd / 2 ba 2,000 Sq. Ft. |
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$539,000 44 ARBOLES #41 |
1.42 miles 2 bd / 2 ba 1,507 Sq. Ft. |
For more news, market analysis and property profiles, please see the North OC Housing News.
40 SOMERTON #49 Irvine, CA 92620 — $678,491
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # U12000947 from our database. Please check back soon.
Competing Listings
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$698,075 46 SOMERTON #51 |
0 miles 4 bd / 2.75 ba 2,077 Sq. Ft. |
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$230,000 5200 IRVINE Blvd #115 |
0.35 miles 2 bd / 1.75 ba 2,040 Sq. Ft. |
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$298,000 5200 IRVINE Blvd #181 |
0.35 miles 2 bd / 1.75 ba 1,766 Sq. Ft. |
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$260,000 5200 IRVINE Blvd #260 |
0.35 miles 2 bd / 1.75 ba 1,760 Sq. Ft. |
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$269,000 5200 IRVINE Blvd #493 |
0.35 miles 2 bd / 1.75 ba 1,876 Sq. Ft. |
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$549,999 62 TOWNSEND |
0.78 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 1,824 Sq. Ft. |
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$451,250 73 MISSION |
0.87 miles 2 bd / 2.5 ba 1,850 Sq. Ft. |
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$480,000 49 CONCIERTO |
0.91 miles 2 bd / 2.5 ba 1,850 Sq. Ft. |
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$650,000 175 INTRIGUE |
0.94 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,104 Sq. Ft. |
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$699,000 85 LAMPLIGHTER |
0.94 miles 4 bd / 3.5 ba 2,400 Sq. Ft. |
For more Irvine news, market analysis and property profiles, please see the Irvine Housing News.
61 SECRET Gdn Irvine, CA 92620 — $979,000
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # S690607 from our database. Please check back soon.
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$1,588,868 28 GRASSLAND |
0.5 miles 5 bd / 4.5 ba 4,000 Sq. Ft. |
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$839,900 43 CHOATE |
0.53 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,870 Sq. Ft. |
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$849,900 25 PLYMOUTH |
0.75 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,828 Sq. Ft. |
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$929,900 16 HARRISBURG |
0.75 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 3,029 Sq. Ft. |
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$799,000 4 CARSON |
0.77 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,600 Sq. Ft. |
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$992,000 24 CONSTANTINE #65 |
0.84 miles 4 bd / 4 ba 2,808 Sq. Ft. |
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$979,000 23 CHIMNEY ROCK |
0.85 miles 5 bd / 4.5 ba 2,850 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,189,000 55 STOWE |
0.88 miles 4 bd / 4 ba 3,550 Sq. Ft. |
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$999,000 241 VINTAGE |
0.9 miles 4 bd / 3.5 ba 2,742 Sq. Ft. |
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$807,990 2 SILVER SPRUCE Ct |
0.92 miles 4 bd / 3.5 ba 3,261 Sq. Ft. |
For more news, market analysis and property profiles, please see the South OC Housing News.
10 MINERAL KING Irvine, CA 92602 — $719,000
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # S689984 from our database. Please check back soon.
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$799,000 12 PROCLAMATION Way |
0.29 miles 5 bd / 3 ba 2,268 Sq. Ft. |
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$679,000 28 PROCLAMATION Way |
0.29 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,005 Sq. Ft. |
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$789,800 106 SPRING Vly |
0.39 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,300 Sq. Ft. |
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$874,800 7 BEL Spgs |
0.4 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,110 Sq. Ft. |
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$889,900 21 VACAVILLE |
0.44 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,600 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,090,000 19 RIVERSIDE |
0.45 miles 5 bd / 3.75 ba 3,000 Sq. Ft. |
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$695,000 20 SORENSON |
0.45 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,250 Sq. Ft. |
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$828,800 29 DINUBA |
0.46 miles 3 bd / 3 ba 2,265 Sq. Ft. |
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$895,000 14 OROVILLE Sts |
0.48 miles 4 bd / 2.25 ba 2,500 Sq. Ft. |
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$848,800 7 OROVILLE |
0.5 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,404 Sq. Ft. |
For more news, market analysis and property profiles, please see the OC Beach Housing News.
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # S690732 from our database. Please check back soon.
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$919,000 2301 PINEHURST Dr |
0.67 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,500 Sq. Ft. |
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$839,000 12415 WOODHALL Way |
0.72 miles 4 bd / 2.75 ba 2,674 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,227,000 2625 PALMETTO |
0.73 miles 4 bd / 3.25 ba 3,400 Sq. Ft. |
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$989,000 28 THORN Hl |
0.78 miles 5 bd / 4.5 ba 3,511 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,120,000 12650 STANTON Ave |
0.79 miles 5 bd / 4.5 ba 3,416 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,100,000 2345 PIEPER Ln |
0.8 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,600 Sq. Ft. |
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$949,900 2241 WILCOX Dr |
0.81 miles 5 bd / 2.75 ba 3,325 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,425,000 2325 PIEPER Ln |
0.81 miles 4 bd / 4.25 ba 3,900 Sq. Ft. |
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$1,198,000 27 KERNVILLE |
0.82 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 3,650 Sq. Ft. |
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$889,900 21 VACAVILLE |
0.84 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,600 Sq. Ft. |
For more news, market analysis and property profiles, please see the OC Housing News.
14442 MAJORCA Ave Irvine, CA 92606 — $520,000
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # S690662 from our database. Please check back soon.
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$629,900 14647 BEACH Ave |
0.31 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 1,873 Sq. Ft. |
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$599,000 36 NEBRASKA |
0.47 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 1,723 Sq. Ft. |
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$549,000 27 BUTTERFLY |
0.48 miles 4 bd / 2.75 ba 1,785 Sq. Ft. |
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$640,000 8 KANSAS |
0.54 miles 5 bd / 3 ba 2,200 Sq. Ft. |
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$599,000 7 BUCHANAN |
0.74 miles 3 bd / 2 ba 1,538 Sq. Ft. |
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$542,000 6 FERN Cyn |
0.81 miles 3 bd / 2.25 ba 1,899 Sq. Ft. |
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$593,300 4651 South LOCKHAVEN Cir |
0.84 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,000 Sq. Ft. |
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$784,500 12 BENJAMIN |
0.84 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,173 Sq. Ft. |
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$590,400 8 STAR THISTLE |
0.87 miles 3 bd / 2 ba 1,587 Sq. Ft. |
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$885,000 15 RIVEROAKS |
1.07 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,200 Sq. Ft. |
