a significant decline in sales volume is because lenders have withdrawn the only affordable properties from the market. Potential homebuyers cannot simply raise their bids because the product gets scarce, so it isn’t a foregone conclusion that prices must go up. Most people stretch to get the most house they can for the money, and if prices go up, they must either substitute to a lesser quality home or chose not to buy. Right now, many are wisely choosing not to buy, so sales volumes are plummeting. Plus, I don’t see any end in sight. Nothing is changing that will bring more supply to the market. Little or no inventory and super low sales volume is the new normal.
Prime season existing-home sales plummet 6.9 percent in West
The consensus among economists for June home sales was that sales volumes would continue to increase. Proving their fallibility, the consensus of economists was wrong — very wrong. June and July are typically the best months for sales volume in the prime selling season, and sales volumes dropped in every region in the US. A large decline in existing home sales is further evidence that the house price bottom the consensus of economists is also predicting is in jeopardy. Nominal prices are moving higher, but it isn’t based on the strength of demand, it is due to the restriction of supply. And with millions of homes in shadow inventory, weakening demand is not a good sign for the housing market. The consensus of economists may turn out to be right with their bottom call, but not for the right reasons. Further, there is a real chance, the consensus could be very wrong again.
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Proprietary Irvine Housing News home purchase analysis
35 LEHIGH AISLE Irvine, CA 92612
$488,000 …….. Asking Price
$530,000 ………. Purchase Price
7/25/2008 ………. Purchase Date
($42,000) ………. Gross Gain (Loss)
($42,400) ………… Commissions and Costs at 8%
============================================
($84,400) ………. Net Gain (Loss)
============================================
-7.9% ………. Gross Percent Change
-15.9% ………. Net Percent Change
-2.0% ………… Annual Appreciation
Cost of Home Ownership
——————————————————————————
$488,000 …….. Asking Price
$17,080 ………… 3.5% Down FHA Financing
3.55% …………. Mortgage Interest Rate
30 ……………… Number of Years
$470,920 …….. Mortgage
$139,211 ………. Income Requirement
$2,128 ………… Monthly Mortgage Payment
$423 ………… Property Tax at 1.04%
$0 ………… Mello Roos & Special Taxes
$122 ………… Homeowners Insurance at 0.3%
$491 ………… Private Mortgage Insurance
$433 ………… Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$3,596 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
($454) ………. Tax Savings
($735) ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$19 ………….. Lost Income to Down Payment
$81 ………….. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$2,508 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$6,380 ………… Furnishing and Move In at 1% + $1,500
$6,380 ………… Closing Costs at 1% + $1,500
$4,709 ………… Interest Points
$17,080 ………… Down Payment
============================================
$34,549 ………. Total Cash Costs
$38,400 ………. Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$72,949 ………. Total Savings Needed
The property above is available for sale on the MLS.
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Cost of Ownership Analysis
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Nearby Foreclosures
Gain a competitive advantage over other buyers. By locating distressed properties -- before they hit the MLS -- you can discover where tomorrow's REOs and short sales will appear. Most of these properties are not listed on the MLS, but they will be soon. Research properties in advance and get a jump on your competition. Don't miss out on another deal because you couldn't act quickly. Use this tool to your advantage! The red properties are already bank owned. As soon as REO asset managers prepare them for sale, they will be on the MLS. Get ready! The green and blue properties have owners who are not paying their mortgages. They may be offered as short sales, or they may go through foreclosure and become REO. Either way, they will also likely be available on the MLS soon. Find your next home! Be prepared to offer on these properties by researching them in advance or risk losing out to buyers who are have done their homework. Start your research today! To find distressed properties, enter your desired location and press search. Scroll through list by pressing "next."Comparative Market Analysis
Are you ready to make an offer, but you are worried you will either (1) underbid and miss the property or (2) overbid and pay too much? Don't make a mistake and miss your dream home, or worse yet, overpay for it! Get the advice of a seasoned professional. Contact us at info@ochousingnews.com today!
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Reports are available for properties in the Southern California MLS coverage area, and are generally delivered within 24-72 hours. If you wish to receive multiple properties, please contact us at info@ochousingnews.com, and we will prepare the reports for you.
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